two & a half gamers – 🎯 The DEFINITIVE Guide to D2C in 2026: Real Numbers from 8 Studios

Summary

Everything You Need to Know About D2C: Data, Strategy & the Closing Window. Direct-to-consumer is finally out of the shadows. Eight public studios just revealed how much revenue they drive through D2C — and the numbers make the case better than any pitch could. But there’s a window closing, and the studios moving now are the ones who’ll win.

Matej Lančarič, Jakub Remiar, and Felix Braberg are joined by Chip Thurston (FastSpring) for a D2C deep-dive built around the Pocket Gamer report aggregating publicly disclosed D2C revenue. They break down the three cohorts (social casino, mid-core, casual) and what each tells us, the standout data points (Playtika at 39% of revenue, Fishing Clash at 33%, Double Down at 44%), the difference between direct-checkout links and web stores and why you need both, Google’s new External Content Links policy, the still-unapproved Epic v. Google settlement and its 20% linked-payment fee, where Apple’s appeals stand after the Supreme Court declined to hear them, and the single most actionable takeaway: maximize US D2C traffic today, while you can still steer without fees.
The window is open right now. It won’t stay open forever.

📌 KEY TAKEAWAYS
— D2C is out of the shadows. A Pocket Gamer report (by Craig Chappell) aggregates publicly disclosed D2C revenue from eight studios — Playtika, MTG, Stillfront, SciPlay, PlayStudios, Tensquare, Huuuge, G5, Take-Two. For the first time, studios are openly reporting D2C as a positive earnings story rather than treating it as a cloak-and-dagger tactic.
— Three cohorts, all winning. Social casino (SciPlay, PlayStudios, Huuuge, Double Down at 44%) leads because revenue is VIP-concentrated — shift a few whales and you shift a big share of revenue. Mid-core (MTG, Stillfront, Tensquare) ranges up to 44%. Casual works too — Playtika drives 39% of total revenue via D2C, mostly from casual now that 76% of its revenue is casual, not social casino.
— Geography is about players, not headquarters. The studios span the US, Europe, Korea, and Israel. What matters is where your players are — specifically that you need US players right now, because that’s where current rulings let you steer to web stores without fees.
— A game-level D2C number finally appeared. Tensquare disclosed that Fishing Clash specifically drives 33% of its revenue via D2C — the first time a publisher has broken out D2C for a single game. Anecdotally, ~70% D2C is being floated as an achievable near-term target under current rulings.
— Direct checkout vs web store is the key strategic choice. Direct-checkout links (skip the store, go straight to a hosted checkout page, bounce back to the game) are the most frictionless path available today and can push you over 50% D2C. But every direct-checkout link is a “linked payment” that would incur the 20% fee under the coming settlement — so the durable play is habituating players to your web store as a destination they’ll return to regardless.
— The Epic v. Google settlement is still unapproved and the dates are slipping. Google intended its new fee structure to take effect June 30, 2026 (US and Europe), but the court is skeptical and hasn’t approved it. The structure decouples the old 30% into a 5% Google Play billing fee plus a 20-25% platform fee (varying by install date), with carve-outs for first $1M (10%) and subscriptions (10% + 5%). The cosmetic-vs-power-item distinction was dropped entirely.

— The actionable playbook: maximize US D2C today with a mix of direct-checkout (for frictionless conversion now) and web-store links (to habituate players for the fee future). Learn from the disclosed studios (Raid Shadow Legends’ web-store points flywheel is a great model). And treat Japan — which already allows steering with fees under its Mobile Software Competition Act — as a soft launch for the fee-based future of D2C.
🎙️ HOSTS
Matej Lančarič — User Acquisition consultant
Jakub Remiar — Game Design consultant
Felix Braberg — Ad Monetization consultant
🎤 GUEST
Chip Thurston — FastSpring
www.fastspring.gg

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